The M*A*S*H Unit that is the NFL this year is mind-boggling. If your fantasy team is somehow not affected by injuries, you are either very lucky or you are playing Arena League Fantasy Football.
So, we now get to see what Reggie Bush can really do. Personally, I don't think it'll be much more than what we have seen. Maybe a slight bump in numbers, but I'm betting we see more of Aaron Stecker than people think. Plus, did you see Reggie drop that easy TD on MNF? Wow. Sure he ran one in the next play, but studs don't drop sure things like that on National TV.
Lost to Ronnie Brown & his 40+ point output in an important league. It's things like this that make me hate fantasy football. The luck factor is just too damn high...and, yes, Ronnie's day was mighty lucky.
Brett Favre is partying like it's 1999 and whether you own him or not, it is fun to watch.
This is the week LT parties like it's 2006.
I think Thomas Jones, Willie Parker & Ron Dayne (if Green is out) are in for big days on Sunday.
That TD by Greg Jennings was impressive. He left 4 defenders in the dust and looked a gazelle as he dashed into the endzone. Kid just needs to get and stay healthy.
Houston might actually be a team to watch this year. And it's not all about them. Sure they have a nice D to keep them in games and an offense that (when and if it is healthy) can score, BUT the real story is the AFC. After NE, IND & PITT, who is there? Let's see... I say Baltimore, Cinci, Tennesse, San Diego and Houston are the other teams to watch, and the fact that Houston is on that list is what makes me go "wow."
Green Bay's backfield is still baffling, but I'm still betting on Brandon Jackson to emerge as the guy there. I think the Ryan Grant stuff is BS, just like the Wynn stuff was BS.
Some players to watch: Earnest Graham, Dwayne Bowe, Trent Edwards
Nothing to see here: Matt Leinart, Joe Jurevicius, Joey Porter
It'll be interesting to see Brian Griese at the helm in Chicago -- not so much from a fantasy standpoint as from a football standpoint. If he works out, Chicago might get back to being a Super Bowl contender.
This is the week to try and acquire any 'busts' you believe in -- i.e. Evans, Brees, Colston, and anyone else that fits the bill.
Kevin Curtis won't have another game like that in his career, but he's a very nice WR3 or WR4 to have.
Buy low on Drew Brees & Larry Johnson.
Sell high on Ronnie Brown and Adrian Peterson.
WHAT I’M WATCHING THIS WEEK:
Marc Bulger, Matt Leinart, Brian Griese & David Carr
Brandon Jackson, MJD, Larry Johnson & Brian Leonard
Reggie Brown, Lee Evans, Greg Jennings & Dwayne Bowie
Bears at Lions, Broncos at Colts, Packers at Vikings
Cubs & Brewers, Mets & Phillies, Red Sox & Yankees
The season premiere of The Office was a damn funny hour of television.
Friday, September 28, 2007
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Fantasy, Reality and the pusuit of success
Week 3 was difficult as I went 8-8 on picks and 1-2 against the spread. Here are 10 tips that can help when things get tricky.
- Never discount a struggling team that has a solid core of players and sound leadership. Week 3 example: Eagles. Week 4 example: Chargers.
- In the NFL, the home team has a big advantage before the game is even played.
- Las Vegas places a 2-3 point spread advantage for the home team before any analysis.
- When in doubt, go with the home team.
- For 2007, bet the Patriots every week until further notice.
- Follow the trend. If a team is winning: buy. If a team is losing: sell.
- The team with the better defense has the advantage.
- The team with the better Quarterback has the advantage.
- Never let team loyalty get in the way of predicting a winner.
- Never let fantasy replace reality.
A look at Week 3
- Brett Favre really looks good. Can you imagine this team with Randy Moss?
- San Diego is still a mess. Rivers is just not very good right now. The sideline argument with L.T. was a joke. I'll take a proven Hall of Famer over a young unproven QB any day. Rivers hit a covered L.T. in the head with a screen pass, and then later threw the ball away when L.T. was wide open and almost certain to score on a big play. During the argument Rivers exclaimed the first play gave L.T. no reason to complain as he should have caught the first ball. What a joke.
- Houston is for real. Without Andre Johnson, Ahman Green, Ron Dayne and Jacoby Jones, Matt Schaub still kept the game close and almost pulled out a win. The defense will keep this team in the playoff hunt if those play makers can heal quickly.
- Peyton Manning and the Colts are not blowing people away like the Patriots. Maybe they are just playing more conservatively right now, but I don't see the same explosiveness this year. Yet.
- We have a Ronnie Brown sighting. Probably won't see him again for awhile.
- N.E. looks unstoppable. I'm not sure they will lose a game all year. And that includes the Super Bowl.
- Philadelphia finally showed up this year. Expect them to grind their way to the playoffs like always. McNabb looks better obviously.
- Warner is better than Leinart. Make the move Ken.
- Baltimore seems like they will fall into the playoffs this year. But this team is ugly.
- S.F. is still a few years away and I don't see Alex Smith as the right guy.
- Pittsburgh is the 3rd best AFC team right now.
- St.Louis is finished. Breaking news I know.
- Cincinnati might be good enough on offense to overcome their defense much like Indy last year.
- Denver will play just well enough to lose again in the playoffs.
- Jack Del Rio is gone after this year. Who is calling the plays for this team?
- Carolina is way underachieving, but they could surprise down the stretch.
- Eli Manning is very good. He will be a top QB for years to come.
- I like Dallas for the NFC Champion this year.
- The Bears are already better with Griese and he has not played a game yet. However, at 1-2 it is the wrong time to have so many injuries on defense.
- I guess New Orleans was a one year wonder.
- Vince Young will win a Super Bowl. Maybe next year.
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Gambling Man
Detroit Lions (2-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-2) Line: Eagles by 6
These teams are heading in different directions this year, and I expect their streaks to continue. The Lions are off to a good start riding Jon Kitna's bold predictions, and the explosive scheme of a Mike Martz offense. The addition of 1st round draft pick Calvin "Megatron" Johnson makes this offense dangerous to any defense. While Tatum Bell hasn't done much, the early return of Kevin Jones has Detroit fans optimistic about a playoff run. The Eagles have struggled out of the gate losing 2 close games against Green Bay and Washington. Donovan McNabb is still feeling the effects of off season surgery, L.J. Smith had a second surgery that will keep him out another month, Lito Sheppard is likely out and Brian Westbrook always makes the injury report and is once again a game time decision. Although the Eagles play at home and they have won the last 4 meetings with Detroit, I would take the 6 points and go with the Detroit Lions to upset the Philadelphia Eagles 31-24.
Dallas Cowboys (2-0) at Chicago Bears (1-1) Line: Bears by 3.5
The Dallas Cowboys are off to a terrific start. Tony Romo is proving last year's pro bowl numbers were not a fluke, Terrell Owens continues to catch touchdowns, and Marion Barber is turning the Dallas RBBC into a 1 man show. Unfortunately, Terry Glenn is not certain to return this year, and the Dallas Defense is struggling to overcome injuries although the recent signing of Tank Johnson will help later this year. The Bears opened the season with a tough road loss in San Diego, but rebounded well against Kansas City. Rex Grossman continues to baffle with his up and down play and Cedric Benson seems soft so far in his career. However, The Bears defense is playing better then ever, and Devin Hester is the most dynamic return man since Deion Sanders. The Chicago Bears look like the same team the lost in the SuperBowl, so I expect them to return to the playoffs and once again compete for a title. Take the Chicago Bears at home to cover the spread and defeat the Dallas Cowboys 24-20.
Tennessee Titans (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-2) Line: Saints by 4
Tennessee is a dangerous team this year. I expect them to deliver more than a few upsets with Vince Young as their quarterback. While he still seems to make too many throwing errors, there is no question his running ability always keeps the Titans in the game. Although the loss of PacMan Jones hurts, this defense is underrated keeping Peyton Manning in check last week and almost pulling the upset. The Saints were a different team in 2006. Sean Peyton seems to be feeling the pressure that accompanies success in the NFL, as the team can not find any balance on offense or defense in 2007. Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister can not find any room to run, Drew Brees looks like he has never played football before and the Saints defense is invisible, especially if your name is Joey Galloway. The Saints are 7-15 when they play on Monday Night which happens to be the worst in the NFL and they are also riding a 3 game losing streak going back to the playoff loss to the Chicago Bears. The Titans have a 4 game winning streak on the road. Take the 4 points and the Tennessee Titans over the New Orleans Saints 26-21.
These teams are heading in different directions this year, and I expect their streaks to continue. The Lions are off to a good start riding Jon Kitna's bold predictions, and the explosive scheme of a Mike Martz offense. The addition of 1st round draft pick Calvin "Megatron" Johnson makes this offense dangerous to any defense. While Tatum Bell hasn't done much, the early return of Kevin Jones has Detroit fans optimistic about a playoff run. The Eagles have struggled out of the gate losing 2 close games against Green Bay and Washington. Donovan McNabb is still feeling the effects of off season surgery, L.J. Smith had a second surgery that will keep him out another month, Lito Sheppard is likely out and Brian Westbrook always makes the injury report and is once again a game time decision. Although the Eagles play at home and they have won the last 4 meetings with Detroit, I would take the 6 points and go with the Detroit Lions to upset the Philadelphia Eagles 31-24.
Dallas Cowboys (2-0) at Chicago Bears (1-1) Line: Bears by 3.5
The Dallas Cowboys are off to a terrific start. Tony Romo is proving last year's pro bowl numbers were not a fluke, Terrell Owens continues to catch touchdowns, and Marion Barber is turning the Dallas RBBC into a 1 man show. Unfortunately, Terry Glenn is not certain to return this year, and the Dallas Defense is struggling to overcome injuries although the recent signing of Tank Johnson will help later this year. The Bears opened the season with a tough road loss in San Diego, but rebounded well against Kansas City. Rex Grossman continues to baffle with his up and down play and Cedric Benson seems soft so far in his career. However, The Bears defense is playing better then ever, and Devin Hester is the most dynamic return man since Deion Sanders. The Chicago Bears look like the same team the lost in the SuperBowl, so I expect them to return to the playoffs and once again compete for a title. Take the Chicago Bears at home to cover the spread and defeat the Dallas Cowboys 24-20.
Tennessee Titans (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-2) Line: Saints by 4
Tennessee is a dangerous team this year. I expect them to deliver more than a few upsets with Vince Young as their quarterback. While he still seems to make too many throwing errors, there is no question his running ability always keeps the Titans in the game. Although the loss of PacMan Jones hurts, this defense is underrated keeping Peyton Manning in check last week and almost pulling the upset. The Saints were a different team in 2006. Sean Peyton seems to be feeling the pressure that accompanies success in the NFL, as the team can not find any balance on offense or defense in 2007. Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister can not find any room to run, Drew Brees looks like he has never played football before and the Saints defense is invisible, especially if your name is Joey Galloway. The Saints are 7-15 when they play on Monday Night which happens to be the worst in the NFL and they are also riding a 3 game losing streak going back to the playoff loss to the Chicago Bears. The Titans have a 4 game winning streak on the road. Take the 4 points and the Tennessee Titans over the New Orleans Saints 26-21.
Friday, September 21, 2007
Week 3 Picks
| Arizona (1-1) at Baltimore (1-1) | Ravens 22 Cardinals 16 |
| San Diego (1-1) at Green Bay (2-0) | Chargers 24 Packers 20 |
| Indianapolis (2-0) at Houston (2-0) | Colts 27 Texans 17 |
| Minnesota (1-1) at Kansas City (0-2) | Vikings 20 Chiefs 13 |
| Buffalo (0-2) at New England (2-0) | Patriots 31 Bills 14 |
| Miami (0-2) at NY Jets (0-2) | Jets 21 Dolphins 16 |
| Detroit (2-0) at Philadelphia (0-2) | Lions 31 Eagles 24 |
| San Francisco (1-1) at Pittsburgh (2-0) | Steelers 23 49ers 17 |
| St. Louis (0-2) at Tampa Bay (1-1) | Rams 20 Bucs 17 |
| Jacksonville (1-1) at Denver (2-0) | Broncos 27 Jaguars 14 |
| Cleveland (1-1) at Oakland (0-2) | Raiders 21 Browns 17 |
| Cincinnati (1-1) at Seattle (1-1) | Bengals 35 Seahawks 31 |
| Carolina (1-1) at Atlanta (0-2) | Panthers 21 Falcons 13 |
| NY Giants (0-2) at Washington (2-0) | Redskins 24 Giants 21 |
| Dallas (2-0) at Chicago (1-1) | Bears 24 Cowboys 20 |
| Tennessee (1-1) at New Orleans (0-2) | Titans 26 Saints 21 |
In My Opinion...
Reggie Bush, the player, is great. Reggie Bush, the New Orleans Saint, is overrated. With the team struggling and Deuce in the mix, Reggie is not worth the high pick that was likely spent on him in most drafts.
Ronnie Brown can be had in most leagues for next to nothing. Question is, do you want him? I say yes. I think he'll be worth what you give up now later in the season. He doesn't have the best of playoff schedules, but, hey, you have to get to the playoffs first.
Andre Johnson being out for any amount of time, much less the potential five weeks that is being reported, is a crushing blow to many a fantasy team.
LaDainian Tomlinson is fine.
Steven Jackson will be fine.
Jason Campbell looks like a fantasy star in the making.
Cleveland has so many weapons on offense, I am beginning to wonder what this team will be like with Quinn behind center and a young stud RB behind him. Too bad the team traded away their #1 in 2008 for Quinn. As a result it might be a while before that RB is added.
Green Bay's backfield is baffling. I do not believe in Deshawn Wynn at all and think Brandon Jackson will emerge as the team's workhorse as early as this week and will definitely be factor in fantasy this year.
Kevin Jones will be a factor this year, rendering Tatum Bell (even more) worthless by Week 5.
Chris Henry, the Cincinnati WR, will be a factor this year. He returns in Week 9.
The 49ers are not for real because Alex Smith is a fake, phony, fraud.
One guy I want to add in many leagues is Correll Buckhalter. Another is Ron Dayne. Even another is Mewelde Moore. I'd add them in that order.
I don't like rookie WRs, but I do like Dwayne Bowe and James Jones.
I covet #1 WRs, but I also like Wes Welker, Kevin Curtis and Mike Furrey.
Buy low on Lee Evans & Laurence Maroney.
Sell high on Carnell Williams & Chris Chambers.
WHAT I’M WATCHING THIS WEEK:
Drew Brees, Derek Anderson, Matt Schaub
LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson
Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Andre Johnson’s injury report
Cowboys at Bears, Bengals at Seahawks, Lions at Eagles
Cubs & Brewers, Mets & Phillies, Red Sox & Yankees
Best New Show On TV: Showtime's Californication
Ronnie Brown can be had in most leagues for next to nothing. Question is, do you want him? I say yes. I think he'll be worth what you give up now later in the season. He doesn't have the best of playoff schedules, but, hey, you have to get to the playoffs first.
Andre Johnson being out for any amount of time, much less the potential five weeks that is being reported, is a crushing blow to many a fantasy team.
LaDainian Tomlinson is fine.
Steven Jackson will be fine.
Jason Campbell looks like a fantasy star in the making.
Cleveland has so many weapons on offense, I am beginning to wonder what this team will be like with Quinn behind center and a young stud RB behind him. Too bad the team traded away their #1 in 2008 for Quinn. As a result it might be a while before that RB is added.
Green Bay's backfield is baffling. I do not believe in Deshawn Wynn at all and think Brandon Jackson will emerge as the team's workhorse as early as this week and will definitely be factor in fantasy this year.
Kevin Jones will be a factor this year, rendering Tatum Bell (even more) worthless by Week 5.
Chris Henry, the Cincinnati WR, will be a factor this year. He returns in Week 9.
The 49ers are not for real because Alex Smith is a fake, phony, fraud.
One guy I want to add in many leagues is Correll Buckhalter. Another is Ron Dayne. Even another is Mewelde Moore. I'd add them in that order.
I don't like rookie WRs, but I do like Dwayne Bowe and James Jones.
I covet #1 WRs, but I also like Wes Welker, Kevin Curtis and Mike Furrey.
Buy low on Lee Evans & Laurence Maroney.
Sell high on Carnell Williams & Chris Chambers.
WHAT I’M WATCHING THIS WEEK:
Drew Brees, Derek Anderson, Matt Schaub
LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson
Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Andre Johnson’s injury report
Cowboys at Bears, Bengals at Seahawks, Lions at Eagles
Cubs & Brewers, Mets & Phillies, Red Sox & Yankees
Best New Show On TV: Showtime's Californication
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Under the radar: Brandon Marshall
Brandon Marshall is quickly becoming a reliable # 2 WR. Towards the end of his rookie season, Marshall was able to develop chemistry with Jay Cutler, because the Broncos decided to get both rookies experience. Marshall was used sparingly in 2006, but when he was given a chance, he excelled. Now in 2007, he has a chance to become a top WR with aging Rod Smith injured and all but finished in Denver. In game 1 against the Bills, Marshall had 5 catches for 52 yards and a touchdown. In game 2 against the Raiders, Marshall had 5 catches for 82 yards and not 1 but 2 touchdowns taken away from him. Jay Cutler is still young and makes too many mistakes. However, Cutler has a big arm and Marshall is a big target in the red zone. Look for teams to double team Javon Walker with the Broncos exploiting Cutler's arm which leaves Marshall a surprising sleeper for the remainder of 2007. He is a perfect candidate for the 3rd year WR rule for 2008, and I expect most if not all fantasy experts and magazines to place him on those lists.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Week 2 picks
A bit tougher this week to pick winners. I went 10-6 bringing my total for the year to 22-10. Not bad, but should do better than that. Still haven't added the spread, but maybe I will feature a few games each week that look like tough calls based on the spread.
A look at Week 2
- CLE 51 - CIN 45. Did not see that coming. The most telling part of this game is that Cincinnati has not yet arrived as a true super bowl contender.
- In case you missed it, Dan Dierdorf showed yet another reason why he is a lousy announcer. Dierdorf made a dumb comment directed towards Frank Gore's manhood while Gore became overwhelmed with emotion following the loss of his mother. Classless.
- The worst rule in football is the last second coaches timeout. Denver's Mike Shanahan called a brilliant timeout allegedly seconds before Oakland kicked the game winning field goal. Sebastian Janikowski hit the upright with his second kick, and Denver went on to win the game. Not only did it seem too late, but this kind of gamesmanship seems out of place in the NFL. The NFL does not allow taunting, touchdown celebrations or the removal of player helmets while on the field. Another reason the NFL really does mean " No Fun League."
- Andre Johnson was always this good. He just had David Carr throwing him the ball.
- Kellen Winslow looks healthy. And that could mean WR type numbers.
- Joey Galloway is faster than ever. He is also older than many television analysts. I guess that holdout in Seattle was for longevity reasons not financial. Amazing.
- I'll say it again. San Diego is out of sync on offense and has a lot of work to do. Maybe Norv is only as good as his record. Hmm.
- I could not have been more wrong about Vernon Davis. Not the player. But those in charge of getting him the ball. Alex Smith. Where are you? How about calling some plays for your 2006 #1 pick coach?
- The Cowboys offense looks really good. The Bears defense is better. Week 3 might be a preview of the NFC championship game.
- Minnesota might have the best defense in the NFL.
- Calvin Johnson is everything he is supposed to be. And more. I expect a TD every week.
- Obviously Randy Moss is back. But the Patriots look unstoppable.
- An off day for Peyton Manning is still better than most quarterbacks.
- If Vince Young can improve his passing, he might become one of the best in the game. Didn't they say the same about Vick? Michael Vick finally became one of the top quarterbacks last year in overall production and I think Young is better. He also seems to have that "IT" quality about him. Lets see if he can progress faster than Vick.
- Houston seems to be for real. Maybe passing on Reggie Bush won't haunt them any longer.
- Why did Atlanta trade Matt Schaub again? Oh yeah. Vick was their guy.
- Brett Favre has one more chance. It is now or never Brett.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Week 2 Sunday Update
12:15 ET: Cadillac Williams is active, so he might play a significant role today.
12:05 ET: Vernand Morency is inactive; Brandon Jackson will remain feature back.
11:26 ET: ESPN reports Eli Manning will start.
12:05 ET: Vernand Morency is inactive; Brandon Jackson will remain feature back.
11:26 ET: ESPN reports Eli Manning will start.
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Week 2 Picks
| Houston (1-0) at Carolina (1-0) | Panthers 20 Texans 17 |
| Cincinnati (1-0) at Cleveland (0-1) | Bengals 27 Browns 13 |
| Atlanta (0-1) at Jacksonville (0-1) | Jaguars 24 Falcons 10 |
| Green Bay (1-0) at NY Giants (0-1) | Packers 31 Giants 14 |
| Buffalo (0-1) at Pittsburgh (1-0) | Steelers 24 Bills 17 |
| San Francisco (1-0) at St. Louis (0-1) | Rams 27 49ers 21 |
| New Orleans (0-1) at Tampa Bay (0-1) | Saints 27 Bucs 14 |
| Indianapolis (1-0) at Tennessee (1-0) | Colts 27 Titans 24 |
| Seattle (1-0) at Arizona (0-1) | Seahawks 21 Cardinals 20 |
| Minnesota (1-0) at Detroit (1-0) | Lions 28 Vikings 17 |
| Dallas (1-0) at Miami (0-1) | Cowboys 28 Dolphins 17 |
| NY Jets (0-1) at Baltimore (0-1) | Ravens 17 Jets 14 |
| Kansas City (0-1) at Chicago (0-1) | Bears 27 Chiefs 10 |
| Oakland (0-1) at Denver (1-0) | Broncos 20 Raiders 10 |
| San Diego (1-0) at New England (1-0) | Patriots 27 Chargers 20 |
| Washington (1-0) at Philadelphia (0-1) | Eagles 27 Redskins 20 |
Friday, September 14, 2007
BUY LOW/SELL HIGH
I know I don’t need to tell anyone how to execute this kind of deal, however the beauty is found in the when. When do you buy low? When do you sell high? Below are a few sell high and buy low candidates and -- given a steady dose of performances similar to Week 1 -- I’ve provided the approximate Week Of where you should be selling or buying:
SELL HIGH CANDIDATES:
Chris Brown: after Week 2 – if he does anything good this week and you have needs on your squad other than RB2, sell. You obviously drafted him late or added him via waivers, so get something really nice that you do need.
Andre Johnson: Never Sell – enjoy the ride.
Antwaan Randle El: NOW – In my opinion this window was never big. If he does anything Monday Night against Philly, sell.
Derrick Ward: after Week 2/3 – Obviously depends on Jacobs’ return date, but if he does well against GB, I’d sell. He then see Washington in Week 3, so after that game he might only have value to the Jacobs owner in your league, if that.
Ronald Curry: after Week 3 – I think points will be hard to come by this week at Denver, but a good performance by Culpepper and a good showing against Cleveland in Week 3 just might open the door to nice sell high (before seeing MIA, BYE, SD).
Tony Romo: Never Sell – I think you hold onto this guy all year.
Ben Roethlisberger: after Week 4 – you probably drafted him as a QB2, so if your QB1 is thriving, you could sell high after any of these upcoming weeks (after facing BUF, SF, ARZ) or package him with someone for a nice upgrade. I like Big Ben a lot this year, so it all depends who your QB1 is.
BUY LOW CANDIDATES:
Larry Johnson : after Week 4/5 -- half the work has been done for you as LJ has been the victim of so much bad press. Lots of it is true, HOWEVER this is a classic buy low if you can pull it off. He’d make a great RB2 or RB3/match-up guy (wow) if you can pull it off. He faces Chicago this week, followed by MIN and then SD. Depends on the MIN game, but if the planets align, start feeling it out after Week 3 and pounce after week 4. LJ then faces JAX, CIN & OAK before a Week 8 BYE.
Laurence Maroney: after Week 2 – this one might be tough as they play Buffalo in Week 3 (after SD this week), so you might be get the “I want to see what he does against Buffalo” response, BUT after this week there might be a small window opportunity, especially if the owner finds themselves at 0-2.
Ronnie Brown: after Week 3 – depends if you want him, but his value should be at an all-time low after facing DAL & NYJ.
Drew Brees: NOW – get him now or hope for a mediocre performance against TB. Window might already be closed.
Marquis Colston: (see Drew Brees)
Donald Driver: after Week 3 – after facing NYG and SD, he might be gettable at a good price. Really depends on stats this against the Giants.
Vincent Jackson after Week 2/3 – after facing NE and then GB, this much-discussed breakout candidate should be gettable for a nice price.
Lee Evans: Week 2/3/4 – here’s a nice candidate. He’s about to face PIT, NE, NYJ, so get him while the getting is good.
GUYS YOU SHOULD GET AT ANY COST:
ARMS: Palmer, Brady, Kitna
BACKS: Westbrook, Parker, Henry
HANDS: Wayne, Holt, Walker
WHAT I’M WATCHING THIS WEEK:
Drew Brees, Matt Leinart, Dante Culpepper
Larry Johnson, Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown
Lee Evans, Deion Branch, Vincent Jackson
Minnesota at Detrot, San Diego at New England, Washington at Philadelphia
Californication, It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia, Sarah Silverman Show
SELL HIGH CANDIDATES:
Chris Brown: after Week 2 – if he does anything good this week and you have needs on your squad other than RB2, sell. You obviously drafted him late or added him via waivers, so get something really nice that you do need.
Andre Johnson: Never Sell – enjoy the ride.
Antwaan Randle El: NOW – In my opinion this window was never big. If he does anything Monday Night against Philly, sell.
Derrick Ward: after Week 2/3 – Obviously depends on Jacobs’ return date, but if he does well against GB, I’d sell. He then see Washington in Week 3, so after that game he might only have value to the Jacobs owner in your league, if that.
Ronald Curry: after Week 3 – I think points will be hard to come by this week at Denver, but a good performance by Culpepper and a good showing against Cleveland in Week 3 just might open the door to nice sell high (before seeing MIA, BYE, SD).
Tony Romo: Never Sell – I think you hold onto this guy all year.
Ben Roethlisberger: after Week 4 – you probably drafted him as a QB2, so if your QB1 is thriving, you could sell high after any of these upcoming weeks (after facing BUF, SF, ARZ) or package him with someone for a nice upgrade. I like Big Ben a lot this year, so it all depends who your QB1 is.
BUY LOW CANDIDATES:
Larry Johnson : after Week 4/5 -- half the work has been done for you as LJ has been the victim of so much bad press. Lots of it is true, HOWEVER this is a classic buy low if you can pull it off. He’d make a great RB2 or RB3/match-up guy (wow) if you can pull it off. He faces Chicago this week, followed by MIN and then SD. Depends on the MIN game, but if the planets align, start feeling it out after Week 3 and pounce after week 4. LJ then faces JAX, CIN & OAK before a Week 8 BYE.
Laurence Maroney: after Week 2 – this one might be tough as they play Buffalo in Week 3 (after SD this week), so you might be get the “I want to see what he does against Buffalo” response, BUT after this week there might be a small window opportunity, especially if the owner finds themselves at 0-2.
Ronnie Brown: after Week 3 – depends if you want him, but his value should be at an all-time low after facing DAL & NYJ.
Drew Brees: NOW – get him now or hope for a mediocre performance against TB. Window might already be closed.
Marquis Colston: (see Drew Brees)
Donald Driver: after Week 3 – after facing NYG and SD, he might be gettable at a good price. Really depends on stats this against the Giants.
Vincent Jackson after Week 2/3 – after facing NE and then GB, this much-discussed breakout candidate should be gettable for a nice price.
Lee Evans: Week 2/3/4 – here’s a nice candidate. He’s about to face PIT, NE, NYJ, so get him while the getting is good.
GUYS YOU SHOULD GET AT ANY COST:
ARMS: Palmer, Brady, Kitna
BACKS: Westbrook, Parker, Henry
HANDS: Wayne, Holt, Walker
WHAT I’M WATCHING THIS WEEK:
Drew Brees, Matt Leinart, Dante Culpepper
Larry Johnson, Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown
Lee Evans, Deion Branch, Vincent Jackson
Minnesota at Detrot, San Diego at New England, Washington at Philadelphia
Californication, It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia, Sarah Silverman Show
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Chad Billingsley Vs. Francisco Liriano
| G | GS | IP | W-L | K | BB | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | |
| Liriano | 27 | 15 | 119 | 12-3 | 142 | 32 | 2.16 | 1.00 | 10.74 |
| Billingsley | 40 | 17 | 135 | 11-4 | 128 | 54 | 3.14 | 1.26 | 8.6 |
2007 is proving to be quite a breakout year for Chad Billingsley. Both he and Liriano started their respective seasons in the bullpen. Liriano was promoted in May of 2006 from the bullpen to full time starter and exploded to a 12-3 record. Billingsley was promoted in late June of 2007 and has gone 7-4. Liriano was not only a candidate for rookie of the year, but for the Cy Young award. Unfortunately, we all know his season was cut short by an elbow injury that resulted in Tommy John Surgery. Billingsley had a more difficult time early on in the bullpen. While he did go 4-0 in the bullpen, his ERA was 4.01 which is dragging down his starting ERA of 2.74. It is also noteworthy that Billingsley seems to be getting stronger as the year goes on. Over the last 4 weeks, Billingsley is 4-0 with a 2.13 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. The other thing Billingsley has going for him is his health. If he can finish his breakout season strong, he might become one of the top pitchers in 2008.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Week 1 picks
Well I went 12-4 the first week of the season. Lets make it more difficult next week and throw in the spread. That is the only way to truly declare yourself right or wrong in the world of sports. Although in the NFL, just getting the winning team is hard enough. My scores may have been off on most games, because its early in the season, but as teams establish themselves better I should get better too.
Coaches Corner
Romeo Crennel - It is time for you to go. 6-10 in 2005, 4-14 in 2006 and a brutal opening act against Pittsburgh. Cleveland has made some good draft choices during your tenure, so that's not the problem. There is now a solid core group of players to take to the next level in Quinn, Edwards and Winslow, but it had to be tough to watch Adrian Peterson explode on Sunday when he was right there for you to take in the 2007 draft. A game-breaker. A seat filler. A jersey seller. An identity this team desperately needed. While you may have to deal with a porous GM, or a stingy owner, the fact remains you have had more than 2 years to right this ship. Cleveland needs some energy and excitement and neither exist under your watch. The trade of Charlie Frye to Seattle who goes from starter and 3rd round selection in the 2005 draft to doghouse and traded on opening weekend, shows a lack of direction and leadership. While this paves the way for Quinn to start sooner rather than later and possibly save the Browns from another losing season, there is no reason Cleveland should keep Crennel around as it's captain. The trade of the team's 2008 1st round draft pick should be the nail in the coffin for those hoping next year is the year to fill any remaining holes. Crennel is not Belichick. You had one of the best coaches ever and let him get away. It's time to move in a different direction. Crennel is not Belichick.
Monday, September 10, 2007
A look at Week 1
What a great weekend of football. There are still 2 more games tonight, but lets talk about some things of interest.
- Tom Brady and Randy Moss exploded out of the gate and did exactly what I expected them to do. Don't be fooled by the Bullchick injury report.
- Adrian Peterson looked real good, but that should surprise no one. What was a surprise was an injury to Chester Taylor. A.P.'s stock soars if that shoulder stays healthy.
- Tony Romo is the # 1 fantasy quarterback. Well at least for week 1. Expect him to remain a top 5 quarterback, especially if Glenn comes back.
- Brandon Jacobs and Eli Manning suffered injuries is a sunday night shootout with the Cowboys. Their health status becomes the most important fantasy news to watch this week.
- Steven Jackson stumbled out of the gate big time. 2 fumbles to go with 2 offensive line injuries. I fully expect him to remain a top 5 rb this season, but team injuries and a late 2006 season spike in production have me nervous.
- Kitna made good on his promises for now. He and rookie sensation Calvin Johnson really clicked.
- Reggie Wayne might finally take over # 1 status in Indy. Stay Tuned.
- Get used to the following: Cutler to Marshall - Touchdown!
- I wanted to proclaim M. Lynch a bust this year, it's early but he proved me wrong and looks solid.
- Big Ben Roethlisberger is back after an awful 2006. Expect continued success.
- I was afraid to draft Jake Delhomme this year after getting burned last year. Don't be afraid like me, the Panthers have the easiest schedule in the league.
- Torry Holt is a top 3 wr. Monitor his injury, but the rams throw a lot.
- The Chargers looked awful on offense. The Bears D is scary good, but there is a lot of work to be done Norv!
- Chris Brown has always had talent. Lets see him stay healthy.
- Minnesota Defense might be a top defense this year.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Week 1 Picks
| New Orleans (0-0) at Indianapolis (0-0) | Colts 27 Saints 24 |
| Denver (0-0) at Buffalo (0-0) | Broncos 23 Bills 10 |
| Pittsburgh (0-0) at Cleveland (0-0) | Steelers 24 Browns 7 |
| Philadelphia (0-0) at Green Bay (0-0) | Eagles 24 Packers 16 |
| Kansas City (0-0) at Houston (0-0) | Texans 21 Chiefs 14 |
| Tennessee (0-0) at Jacksonville (0-0) | Jaguars 24 Titans 17 |
| Atlanta (0-0) at Minnesota (0-0) | Vikings 10 Falcons 7 |
| New England (0-0) at NY Jets (0-0) | Patriots 24 Jets 14 |
| Carolina (0-0) at St. Louis (0-0) | Rams 31 Panthers 24 |
| Miami (0-0) at Washington (0-0) | Redskins 17 Dolphins 13 |
| Tampa Bay (0-0) at Seattle (0-0) | Seattle 23 Bucs 17 |
| Chicago (0-0) at San Diego (0-0) | Chargers 27 Bears 24 |
| Detroit (0-0) at Oakland (0-0) | Lions 24 Raiders 19 |
| NY Giants (0-0) at Dallas (0-0) | Cowboys 28 Giants 17 |
| Baltimore (0-0) at Cincinnati (0-0) | Bengals 27 Ravens 20 |
| Arizona (0-0) at San Francisco (0-0) | Cardinals 26 49ers 17 |
3rd and 3
Reggie Bush - This guy just looks faster and better than anyone else on the field this preseason. Last year he began to put it all together down the stretch. In the last 5 games of the season, he totaled over 500 yards from scrimmage with 7 touchdowns. While Bush is getting drafted near the end of the first round in most drafts, look for him to take the next step this year and vault into elite status.
Randy Moss - Two words: Bill Belichick. This guy hides a hang nail injury if he has to. Last year, it seemed like Tom Brady was on the injury report every week. Tom Brady played every week. Randy Moss had a great off season working with Brady, and I think the preseason is just smoke and mirrors for opposing teams. Moss is going to come out of the gate strong and once again become one of the top WR's in the game.
Vernon Davis - Davis missed 6 games last year due to injury and 7 straight weeks of the season. There were 3 other games where he wasn't even thrown to. This year, he is healthy and ready to explode. Alex Smith is starting to show why he was a #1 overall pick 3 years ago, and with defenses keying on Frank Gore, Davis is looking like the next Antonio Gates. He looks like a lineman playing WR. He has already begun to trash talk in the preseason, so my take on this beast is with a full season, he could have 900 yards and 10 td's. That is elite!
Randy Moss - Two words: Bill Belichick. This guy hides a hang nail injury if he has to. Last year, it seemed like Tom Brady was on the injury report every week. Tom Brady played every week. Randy Moss had a great off season working with Brady, and I think the preseason is just smoke and mirrors for opposing teams. Moss is going to come out of the gate strong and once again become one of the top WR's in the game.
Vernon Davis - Davis missed 6 games last year due to injury and 7 straight weeks of the season. There were 3 other games where he wasn't even thrown to. This year, he is healthy and ready to explode. Alex Smith is starting to show why he was a #1 overall pick 3 years ago, and with defenses keying on Frank Gore, Davis is looking like the next Antonio Gates. He looks like a lineman playing WR. He has already begun to trash talk in the preseason, so my take on this beast is with a full season, he could have 900 yards and 10 td's. That is elite!
NFL Season begins!
The season is here! Tonight, the Colts and Saints battle it out in a potential preview of this year's Super Bowl. The fantasy football season begins tonight as well, and with that, the start of this new blog about everything sports and fantasy. Look for daily columns this year on topics covering everything from projections, injuries, headlines and much, much more.
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