Gambling Man

Arizona Cardinals (2-2) at St.Louis Rams (0-4) Line: Cardinals -3.5
Arizona has always been the cellar dweller of the NFC west, but this year things are looking up. There are clearly quarterback issues, as Whisenhunt does not seem confident enough to hand the team back over to Warner. However, the improving defense, the new run oriented offense and the offensive line are getting things done, especially last week against a formidable Pittsburgh defense. If not for a tough loss to San Francisco, this would be a 3-1 team that has a chance to make it to the playoffs in the weak NFC. St.Louis is decimated by injuries. They are missing half of their starters from last season and now Mark Bulger has been benched for ineffectiveness and injury. Gus Frerotte takes over and I actually think the passing game will be just fine, but there just is not enough firepower here to keep up with Arizona. Even without Anquan Boldin and even though Arizona is on the road, take the Arizona Cardinals to Cover and defeat the St.Louis Rams 27-17.

San Diego Chargers (1-3) at Denver Broncos (2-2) Line: Broncos -1
The Chargers are still messing with success. Why won't Norv just give the ball to L.T.? Has he not proven himself in the past? Philip Rivers is abysmal and the defense is quite simply not the same. The Broncos have their own problems. Their two wins were both shaky, Javon Walker is still hurt, the run defense is pitiful and now they might be without Travis Henry for the rest of the season with a suspension looming. San Diego swept the series last year with Denver, but the Broncos are 17-3 at home against divisional rivals since 2001. I think Norv will finally run Tomlinson into the ground and Rivers will only have to occasionally throw to Gates to mkeep the defense honest. Don't even think about throwing Champ Bailey's way Philip. Take the 1 point and the San Diego Chargers to go into "Mile High" and right all of their wrongs, at least for 1 week, and trounce Denver 37-17.

Chicago Bears (1-3) at Green Bay Packers (4-0) Line: Packers -3.5
The Bears are in danger of missing the playoffs if they don't turn things around. A group of mediocre quarterbacks, ineffective running backs, and injuries to the defense have made things more difficult this year. Changing your quarterback during the season usually signals your season is over and neither Griese or Grossman seem capable of leading this team. Also, it is pretty clear that Chicago traded the wrong running back. The Pack is back! Brett Favre is partying like its 1999, and this defense is coming together as a solid unit. The Packers hace the better quarterback, they are the home team, and they are piling up wins as the Bears are piling up losses. Take the Green Bay Packers to cover the spread and defeat the Chicago Bears 24-20.

Week 5 Picks

Miami (0-4) at Houston (2-2)	Texans 24 Dolphins 20
Jacksonville (2-1) at Kansas City (2-2)	Chiefs 17 Jaguars 14
N.Y. Jets (1-3) at N.Y. Giants (2-2)	Giants 24 Jets 14
Carolina (2-2) at New Orleans (0-3)	Saints 21 Panthers 20
Cleveland (2-2) at New England (4-0)	Patriots 38 Browns 17
Seattle (3-1) at Pittsburgh (3-1)	Pittsburgh 27 Seahawks 17
Arizona (2-2) at St. Louis (0-4)	Cardinals 27 Rams 17
Atlanta (1-3) at Tennessee (2-1)	Titans 24 Falcons 13
Detroit (3-1) at Washington (2-1)	Lions 28 Washington 20
San Diego (1-3) at Denver (2-2)	Chargers 37 Broncos 17
Tampa Bay (3-1) at Indianapolis (4-0)	Colts 31 Bucs 14
Baltimore (2-2) at San Francisco (2-2)	Ravens 21 49ers 13
Chicago (1-3) at Green Bay (4-0)	Packers 24 Bears 20
Dallas (4-0) at Buffalo (1-3)	Cowboys 31 Bills 14

A look at Week 4

• Pretty soon the Packers are going to need a running game. They can't possibly win in the playoffs without it. However, Favre is having a career year and the Pack are 4-0 so there is no urgency.
  
• I think Detroit will indeed win 10 games and make the playoffs. Nice call Jon.
• The Giants have an emerging defense that makes them a playoff contender.
• The Rams are done. In case you were holding out hope. But, look for the passing attack to bounce back this week with Gus at the wheel.
• There is not a better team in the NFC than the Cowboys. Romo is having an MVP season.
• The Bears have no identity on offense. Below average Wr's, Rb's and most definitely Qb's.
• If only the Browns had a #1 pick in the draft next year. Things would really be looking up.
• The Jets, Dolphins and Bills all stink. Good thing there is no one else in that division.
  
• I still feel the Chargers can make the playoffs. As long as Norv benches Rivers and runs L.T. into the ground.
• The Colts are just chugging along. But it feels more like 2005. Not 2006.
• The Bucs are a fraud. I really can not trust their record.
• Denver is in danger of really falling apart if they don't get healthy.
• Arizona might finally be putting things together. Funny it won't happen with Leinart.
• The 49ers are 2-2 and will not make the playoffs.
  
• The Steelers will back into the playoffs, but they are no threat to the AFC Elite.
  
• The Bengals need to clean house and start over. Keep your core and dump the rest.
  
• I think the Patriots will go undefeated.
  

In My Opinion...

The M*A*S*H Unit that is the NFL this year is mind-boggling. If your fantasy team is somehow not affected by injuries, you are either very lucky or you are playing Arena League Fantasy Football.

So, we now get to see what Reggie Bush can really do. Personally, I don't think it'll be much more than what we have seen. Maybe a slight bump in numbers, but I'm betting we see more of Aaron Stecker than people think. Plus, did you see Reggie drop that easy TD on MNF? Wow. Sure he ran one in the next play, but studs don't drop sure things like that on National TV.

Lost to Ronnie Brown & his 40+ point output in an important league. It's things like this that make me hate fantasy football. The luck factor is just too damn high...and, yes, Ronnie's day was mighty lucky.

Brett Favre is partying like it's 1999 and whether you own him or not, it is fun to watch.

This is the week LT parties like it's 2006.

I think Thomas Jones, Willie Parker & Ron Dayne (if Green is out) are in for big days on Sunday.

That TD by Greg Jennings was impressive. He left 4 defenders in the dust and looked a gazelle as he dashed into the endzone. Kid just needs to get and stay healthy.

Houston might actually be a team to watch this year. And it's not all about them. Sure they have a nice D to keep them in games and an offense that (when and if it is healthy) can score, BUT the real story is the AFC. After NE, IND & PITT, who is there? Let's see... I say Baltimore, Cinci, Tennesse, San Diego and Houston are the other teams to watch, and the fact that Houston is on that list is what makes me go "wow."

Green Bay's backfield is still baffling, but I'm still betting on Brandon Jackson to emerge as the guy there. I think the Ryan Grant stuff is BS, just like the Wynn stuff was BS.

Some players to watch: Earnest Graham, Dwayne Bowe, Trent Edwards

Nothing to see here: Matt Leinart, Joe Jurevicius, Joey Porter

It'll be interesting to see Brian Griese at the helm in Chicago -- not so much from a fantasy standpoint as from a football standpoint. If he works out, Chicago might get back to being a Super Bowl contender.

This is the week to try and acquire any 'busts' you believe in -- i.e. Evans, Brees, Colston, and anyone else that fits the bill.

Kevin Curtis won't have another game like that in his career, but he's a very nice WR3 or WR4 to have.

Buy low on Drew Brees & Larry Johnson.

Sell high on Ronnie Brown and Adrian Peterson.


WHAT I’M WATCHING THIS WEEK:
Marc Bulger, Matt Leinart, Brian Griese & David Carr
Brandon Jackson, MJD, Larry Johnson & Brian Leonard
Reggie Brown, Lee Evans, Greg Jennings & Dwayne Bowie
Bears at Lions, Broncos at Colts, Packers at Vikings
Cubs & Brewers, Mets & Phillies, Red Sox & Yankees

The season premiere of The Office was a damn funny hour of television.

Fantasy, Reality and the pusuit of success

Week 3 was difficult as I went 8-8 on picks and 1-2 against the spread. Here are 10 tips that can help when things get tricky.

1. Never discount a struggling team that has a solid core of players and sound leadership. Week 3 example: Eagles. Week 4 example: Chargers.
   
2. In the NFL, the home team has a big advantage before the game is even played.
   
3. Las Vegas places a 2-3 point spread advantage for the home team before any analysis.
4. When in doubt, go with the home team.
   
5. For 2007, bet the Patriots every week until further notice.
   
6. Follow the trend. If a team is winning: buy. If a team is losing: sell.
   
7. The team with the better defense has the advantage.
   
8. The team with the better Quarterback has the advantage.
   
9. Never let team loyalty get in the way of predicting a winner.
   
10. Never let fantasy replace reality.

A look at Week 3

• Brett Favre really looks good. Can you imagine this team with Randy Moss?
• San Diego is still a mess. Rivers is just not very good right now. The sideline argument with L.T. was a joke. I'll take a proven Hall of Famer over a young unproven QB any day. Rivers hit a covered L.T. in the head with a screen pass, and then later threw the ball away when L.T. was wide open and almost certain to score on a big play. During the argument Rivers exclaimed the first play gave L.T. no reason to complain as he should have caught the first ball. What a joke.
• Houston is for real. Without Andre Johnson, Ahman Green, Ron Dayne and Jacoby Jones, Matt Schaub still kept the game close and almost pulled out a win. The defense will keep this team in the playoff hunt if those play makers can heal quickly.
• Peyton Manning and the Colts are not blowing people away like the Patriots. Maybe they are just playing more conservatively right now, but I don't see the same explosiveness this year. Yet.
• We have a Ronnie Brown sighting. Probably won't see him again for awhile.
• N.E. looks unstoppable. I'm not sure they will lose a game all year. And that includes the Super Bowl.
• Philadelphia finally showed up this year. Expect them to grind their way to the playoffs like always. McNabb looks better obviously.
• Warner is better than Leinart. Make the move Ken.
• Baltimore seems like they will fall into the playoffs this year. But this team is ugly.
• S.F. is still a few years away and I don't see Alex Smith as the right guy.
• Pittsburgh is the 3rd best AFC team right now.
• St.Louis is finished. Breaking news I know.
• Cincinnati might be good enough on offense to overcome their defense much like Indy last year.
  
• Denver will play just well enough to lose again in the playoffs.
• Jack Del Rio is gone after this year. Who is calling the plays for this team?
• Carolina is way underachieving, but they could surprise down the stretch.
• Eli Manning is very good. He will be a top QB for years to come.
• I like Dallas for the NFC Champion this year.
  
• The Bears are already better with Griese and he has not played a game yet. However, at 1-2 it is the wrong time to have so many injuries on defense.
  
• I guess New Orleans was a one year wonder.
• Vince Young will win a Super Bowl. Maybe next year.
  

Gambling Man

Detroit Lions (2-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-2) Line: Eagles by 6
These teams are heading in different directions this year, and I expect their streaks to continue. The Lions are off to a good start riding Jon Kitna's bold predictions, and the explosive scheme of a Mike Martz offense. The addition of 1st round draft pick Calvin "Megatron" Johnson makes this offense dangerous to any defense. While Tatum Bell hasn't done much, the early return of Kevin Jones has Detroit fans optimistic about a playoff run. The Eagles have struggled out of the gate losing 2 close games against Green Bay and Washington. Donovan McNabb is still feeling the effects of off season surgery, L.J. Smith had a second surgery that will keep him out another month, Lito Sheppard is likely out and Brian Westbrook always makes the injury report and is once again a game time decision. Although the Eagles play at home and they have won the last 4 meetings with Detroit, I would take the 6 points and go with the Detroit Lions to upset the Philadelphia Eagles 31-24.

Dallas Cowboys (2-0) at Chicago Bears (1-1) Line: Bears by 3.5
The Dallas Cowboys are off to a terrific start. Tony Romo is proving last year's pro bowl numbers were not a fluke, Terrell Owens continues to catch touchdowns, and Marion Barber is turning the Dallas RBBC into a 1 man show. Unfortunately, Terry Glenn is not certain to return this year, and the Dallas Defense is struggling to overcome injuries although the recent signing of Tank Johnson will help later this year. The Bears opened the season with a tough road loss in San Diego, but rebounded well against Kansas City. Rex Grossman continues to baffle with his up and down play and Cedric Benson seems soft so far in his career. However, The Bears defense is playing better then ever, and Devin Hester is the most dynamic return man since Deion Sanders. The Chicago Bears look like the same team the lost in the SuperBowl, so I expect them to return to the playoffs and once again compete for a title. Take the Chicago Bears at home to cover the spread and defeat the Dallas Cowboys 24-20.

Tennessee Titans (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-2) Line: Saints by 4
Tennessee is a dangerous team this year. I expect them to deliver more than a few upsets with Vince Young as their quarterback. While he still seems to make too many throwing errors, there is no question his running ability always keeps the Titans in the game. Although the loss of PacMan Jones hurts, this defense is underrated keeping Peyton Manning in check last week and almost pulling the upset. The Saints were a different team in 2006. Sean Peyton seems to be feeling the pressure that accompanies success in the NFL, as the team can not find any balance on offense or defense in 2007. Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister can not find any room to run, Drew Brees looks like he has never played football before and the Saints defense is invisible, especially if your name is Joey Galloway. The Saints are 7-15 when they play on Monday Night which happens to be the worst in the NFL and they are also riding a 3 game losing streak going back to the playoff loss to the Chicago Bears. The Titans have a 4 game winning streak on the road. Take the 4 points and the Tennessee Titans over the New Orleans Saints 26-21.

Week 3 Picks

Arizona (1-1) at Baltimore (1-1)	Ravens 22 Cardinals 16
San Diego (1-1) at Green Bay (2-0)	Chargers 24 Packers 20
Indianapolis (2-0) at Houston (2-0)	Colts 27 Texans 17
Minnesota (1-1) at Kansas City (0-2)	Vikings 20 Chiefs 13
Buffalo (0-2) at New England (2-0)	Patriots 31 Bills 14
Miami (0-2) at NY Jets (0-2)	Jets 21 Dolphins 16
Detroit (2-0) at Philadelphia (0-2)	Lions 31 Eagles 24
San Francisco (1-1) at Pittsburgh (2-0)	Steelers 23 49ers 17
St. Louis (0-2) at Tampa Bay (1-1)	Rams 20 Bucs 17
Jacksonville (1-1) at Denver (2-0)	Broncos 27 Jaguars 14
Cleveland (1-1) at Oakland (0-2)	Raiders 21 Browns 17
Cincinnati (1-1) at Seattle (1-1)	Bengals 35 Seahawks 31
Carolina (1-1) at Atlanta (0-2)	Panthers 21 Falcons 13
NY Giants (0-2) at Washington (2-0)	Redskins 24 Giants 21
Dallas (2-0) at Chicago (1-1)	Bears 24 Cowboys 20
Tennessee (1-1) at New Orleans (0-2)	Titans 26 Saints 21

In My Opinion...

Reggie Bush, the player, is great. Reggie Bush, the New Orleans Saint, is overrated. With the team struggling and Deuce in the mix, Reggie is not worth the high pick that was likely spent on him in most drafts.

Ronnie Brown can be had in most leagues for next to nothing. Question is, do you want him? I say yes. I think he'll be worth what you give up now later in the season. He doesn't have the best of playoff schedules, but, hey, you have to get to the playoffs first.

Andre Johnson being out for any amount of time, much less the potential five weeks that is being reported, is a crushing blow to many a fantasy team.

LaDainian Tomlinson is fine.

Steven Jackson will be fine.

Jason Campbell looks like a fantasy star in the making.

Cleveland has so many weapons on offense, I am beginning to wonder what this team will be like with Quinn behind center and a young stud RB behind him. Too bad the team traded away their #1 in 2008 for Quinn. As a result it might be a while before that RB is added.

Green Bay's backfield is baffling. I do not believe in Deshawn Wynn at all and think Brandon Jackson will emerge as the team's workhorse as early as this week and will definitely be factor in fantasy this year.

Kevin Jones will be a factor this year, rendering Tatum Bell (even more) worthless by Week 5.

Chris Henry, the Cincinnati WR, will be a factor this year. He returns in Week 9.

The 49ers are not for real because Alex Smith is a fake, phony, fraud.

One guy I want to add in many leagues is Correll Buckhalter. Another is Ron Dayne. Even another is Mewelde Moore. I'd add them in that order.

I don't like rookie WRs, but I do like Dwayne Bowe and James Jones.

I covet #1 WRs, but I also like Wes Welker, Kevin Curtis and Mike Furrey.

Buy low on Lee Evans & Laurence Maroney.

Sell high on Carnell Williams & Chris Chambers.


WHAT I’M WATCHING THIS WEEK:
Drew Brees, Derek Anderson, Matt Schaub
LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson
Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Andre Johnson’s injury report
Cowboys at Bears, Bengals at Seahawks, Lions at Eagles
Cubs & Brewers, Mets & Phillies, Red Sox & Yankees

Best New Show On TV: Showtime's Californication